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Sorry for the delay in the publication, our junior usher Mr. Thomas to randomly Mrs. Dollie por lot of fabrics, and Ms losra for wool Holstgarn ..
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For those who have not won, you can try your luck before the end of the year, good day in the snow (great time to have no excuse for quilting or knitting)

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Economic Impacts of the new American

Elections U.S. mid-term justified a rejection of the policy pursued by President Obama. By taking control of the House of Representatives by winning 60 seats, Republicans reflects discontent voters on the recovery policy, reform of health insurance or energy policy.

What are the economic impacts of this policy change?

Historically this phenomenon of gridlock, which means the loss of majority in Congress for President in place, is good for financial markets. The situation is based on the experiences of 1986 under Reagan, Clinton in 1994 and 1998 as well as the latest Bush. Changes in assets, particularly those risky, tend to be more important. This expectation can be enhanced by the second policy of quantitative easing by the Fed, which led to failure to have a global impact on the monetary policies of other countries, must first allow a resumption of U.S. activity. The most important link is based on bonds as risk-free assets. Investors evaluate the opportunity cost of changing the amounts invested in bonds to defer to risky assets as assets. In short, the new liquidity by the Fed may émissent the gap in performance between these two types of assets and thus increase the opportunity cost keep the bond portfolio. The impact of this trade strengthens U.S. gridlock. Tax measures desired by President Obama targets levels of taxation on capital gains and dividends q ui have been reduced under the Bush presidency.

The consequences of this policy change are not only historical criteria, they can be very important on many current issues and international. The Republican Party is made up of members more often free traders as protectionists , a notable difference from the Democratic Party. We can expect a recovery GREEMENTS of a commercial particularly with partners in South America or South Korea. We can all expect a resumption of trade agreements.

The most important thing is to come. Obama's policy rests for several weeks on a refusal to extend the increase public deficit by increasing spending, conversely many Republicans who supported this proposal. As noted by Robert Shiller, conditions to borrow at low rates have never been better for many years . Insist on fiscal consolidation with an activity low economic requiring new spending is not the solution, the United States and Europe. The issuance of debt indexed to nominal GDP should encourage structural investments in education, research and infrastructure. In this sense, the "new" Congress can encourage this desire to increase spending to ensure economic growth more adapted to future years. Changes that remain exposed to the President's veto in place. Reform on Medicare may not be as easily change before the next term, under-provided that the successor to Obama is a Republican. Finally the federal budget attract much attention and should be the source of the most stormy discussion as the oppositions between parties are important. Finally, the U.S. refusal to establish, or to escape to a policy of environmental regulation internationally can substitute for structural investments in innovation to reduce the different emissions. These innovations require private investment, or support of the public sphere in new spending. In sum, these policies could destabilize and policy coherence of the President Obama . A balance internally and externally to find rest. This gridlock may be more important for eighty years.

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Competition Deadline: November 30 at midnight, drawing on December 1

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Gridlock The U.S. election: economy, foreign policy and Islam ...

On 2 November will be held at the U.S. midterm elections, reiterating the U.S. Congress - the entire House of Representatives and the Senate a party - for the next two years and two years after the historic election of Barack Obama to the presidency. The poll also looks difficult for my outgoing Democratic majority: according to several polls, the Republicans would be able to win the most seats in at least one of the two Houses. The Democratic Party would, in turn, charges a growing mistrust of voters toward Obama.

must say that most of the campaign was quickly focused on the primary American concern and the main weakness of the balance sheet of the first two years of Obama presidency: the economy . With unemployment at just under politically symbolic 10% unemployment, the announcement of "the end of the recession - technically justified the United States having returned positive growth but not spectacular, was not well received in public opinion that still feels the effects of social crisis. The U.S. housing market is struggling to stabilize the stimulus of the Obama administration is regularly attacked in the press because it does not show tangible results, and especially the reform of Medicare, which had raised a debate passionate time of its review and adoption, has not found its popularity, accused by Republicans of being transformed into " gulf in money." Raised the hopes Obama's election in 2008, in terms of employment, return to prosperity, in response to the crisis, now seem largely disappointed in the American press.

In the area of foreign policy of the United States, about some consensus, important sources of cleavages in American opinion, the Obama administration has still not won the diplomatic success it hoped. The big speech of Barack Obama in Cairo in 2009 will certainly be a great moment in American diplomacy, but it does not exceed the symbolism of the verb in the eyes of critics. On the record Nuclear Iran, Obama had proposed an alternative approach to the logic of force dear to George W. Bush, proposing "political Stretched " in Tehran. The results are not objectively in an appointment for the 2010 elections. Iran's nuclear program continues to progress, so much so that several U.S. think tanks, influential in shaping foreign policy in Washington now admit that the Iranian nuclear power is inevitable (the periodical Foreign Affairs, published by the Council on Foreign Relations, in March 2010 headlined " After Iran Gets the Bomb ).

The results are considered disappointing on the Middle East. In fact, few major initiatives have been launched by the Obama administration before the year 2010 on this central issue. Even the New York Times , unlikely to hostility to the Democrats, criticized Obama for calling in a panic peace negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians, only to end election to win in urgent diplomatic success that was lacking before Targets of November 2, 2010. These peace negotiations now seem largely compromised, mined by internal dissent on the Israeli government, Benjamin Netanyahu is torn between his coalition of moderate and right wing of the Minister Lieberman, and Mahmoud Abbas is increasingly overwhelmed by less moderate than he is. They stumble in particular on the issue of Israeli settlement in the West Bank. The idea then developed to a large segment of the American electorate, there has been no significant progress on two major issues of American foreign policy in two years of Obama presidency. This is especially
criticism by opponents of longtime Barack Obama: he is indeed surprising to see Republicans denounce state intervention, higher deficits, the disappointing economic performance or the foreign policy choices of the president.

More surprising is the disaffection that the Democrats seem to suffer from their own electorate . Remember that Barack Obama was elected by the educated middle classes, minorities and especially by young people. Now this is a very interested and motivated electorate parliamentary elections by mid-term by the president. Their participation may be lacking in democracy camp. But their abstention can not be explained by sociological reasons. American youth in 2008 Obama was elected on the promise of renewal. In a major shift in political life, its methods, with a way of thinking and doing things differently, which directly involve citizens in policy making. Obama spent much of this rhetoric is to transcend partisan divisions on the promise to renovate the old political practices of the capital based on a systematic opposition between Democrats and Republicans, and on negotiations with passages and commissions. It was to "change Washington" by devoting transparency.
Today it is widely criticized Obama for having left locked in the political culture of Washington bipartisan and not being able to build compromise with Republicans, not to be associated with opposition in decision-making. The intransigence shown by the Republicans, voting consistently against all projects of the president in voting in Congress, led to the failure of several modernizers projects dear to the president, as the introduction of financial transparency of election campaigns. Ultimately, all that showed American voters that Washington had finally changed. The criticism is now focused on Obama, made in contradiction with its promise of renewal and rejuvenation of American politics.

Unexpected in the American election campaign is the theme of Islam . It is no longer a politically marginal . It partly explains the thrust of the ultra-conservative movement Tea Party, led by ex-candidate Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck. It is part of a series of controversies that have rocked the United States, primarily those concerning "the mosque at Ground Zero in New York.

The construction of an Islamic cultural center in lower Manhattan, just blocks from the site of the former twin towers destroyed in an Islamist attack September 11, 2001, triggered a sensational controversy that has two values in conflict fundamental about America: one side, tolerance and religious freedom for which the U.S. is definitely best, and the other freedom expression and absolute democracy, that we see every day in America, giving permission to deny the right to build a Muslim place of worship on a site as emotionally charged. In the wake of this controversy, the case of a pastor in Florida, announcing his intention to burn copies of the Koran on the day of 11 September, has pushed up a notch tension and debate about Islam in the States USA.

This is neither more nor less than the question of the role of Islam in American society that is asked . The subject, hitherto latent, took place Central to the campaign because of the controversies that have given him a national scale. The State of Oklahoma for example, has been rocked by a debate about the applicability of Islamic law in American law, a referendum has been held for the same proscribed. To believe the analysis of the Council on Foreign Relations , share more and more of the American public finds growing skepticism with the increase in Muslim population in the United States, and associates Islamist terrorist risk still threatening. Islam would be treated a security risk, according to the think tank similar to the fear of communism during the Cold War, which had fueled the reaction of McCarthyism. The New York Times and questioned about a possible rise of "Islamophobia " the United States, which "would undermine religious tolerance, the mainstay of the Constitution .

Economy, foreign policy, life and political practices, Islam ... themes dominating the election campaign clearly favor a protest vote against the Democrats Obama which personally supported the construction of the "mosque at Ground Zero. Reborn in such conditions of old fears unfounded, with surveys showing that now, 20% of Americans believe that "Barack Obama is a Muslim .
However, the success of the Republicans is not acquired . If the electoral context is favorable, the "Grand Old Party" is not in the political conditions provide a strong and credible alternative to the Democrats. Its think tanks struggle to renew their thoughts and ideas. Failed leadership, the Republicans are always looking for figures nationwide, to counter Barack Obama, but also a new political force that overflows from the right and destabilizing: the Tea Party.

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"War changes" disorders, post-crisis

For several weeks many disparities between different persisent central bank. The United States is experiencing a weakening dollar and are now seeking to boost exports. Japan is experiencing a weak economy, however, with a strong currency (hence the market intervention to lower the yen). China limits (or manipulates) the appreciation of the renminbi to facilitate its trade policy. As discussed policy monetary, exchange rate policy, trade policy are all contingent on current economic conditions: low demand and re-budget adjustments.

The need for post-crisis monetary policy

The European Central Bank (ECB) has in turn made the leap with the expiry of exceptional refinancing 6 months and 1 year and gradually reducing its participation in government bonds (more than 10 billion euros in 2009 we are today to evoke million). These measures are distinguished primarily by other central banks around the world who are more likely to reverse the measures already undertaken during the crisis. In addition, the appreciation of the euro would be more conditioned to unsterilized purchases of assets by some countries that increase their liquidity, so their monetary base, which eventually leads to a decline in their currency.

In this context, the ECB has three ways to improve its policy limit its liquidity policy, supporting the bonds and changing interest rates. If the first two levers have undergone many changes, the issue of interest rate maintains a mistrust in the financial markets. The Euro Interbank Offered Rate, or Euribor, the average rate of pay for interbank term deposits within the euro area is 0.77% for 1 month, 0.99% for 3 months or 1.20% over 1 year while the refinancing rate remains at 1%. A change in that rate is expected mid-2011. In internal politics of Jean-Claude Trichet subject of much debate in recent days especially since the intervention of Axel Weber, member of the Governing Council of the ECB, which supports an immediate halt to redemptions of bonds and sovereign debt the debt of banks in the euro area. The debate is in fact based on arbitration: when stop these extraordinary measures? Weber thinks that acting too soon will cause less damage than acting too late. Jean-Claude Trichet, when its part, maintains that it is not the time - a decision supported at least a majority of the Board of Governors. These discussions have as much impact on the monetary policy of the ECB as its credibility, and that is where the problem of global foreign exchange arises.

The unconventional monetary policies or the valuation of risky assets

We recently assisted as mentioned earlier in the text, the introduction of unconventional monetary policy that is to say an increase in the size of the central bank balance sheets by buying financial assets (like bonds). In this context, the ECB announces gradually prepare the end of the famous exceptional measures. Market reaction: appreciation of the euro vis-à-vis other currencies. It is the uncertainty over other currencies that values the currency of the eurozone. This assessment also appears independent of changes in the Credit Default Swaps (CDS) - derivatives to insure against default risk payment of a state or a business. Better, given the evolution of financial markets including those risky assets, end extraordinary measures taken by the ECB raises investor confidence and therefore a valuation of these asset types. These are essential because they show that the monetary policy of the ECB is no longer so dependent on defects in failure of some states, as was the case a few months ago, but more reforms envisaged and anticipated - particularly coordination of the various central banks. In short, the problem of the monetary policies of various central banks should not so interpreted by financial markets - that emphasize quantitative measures facilitating the recovery of assets - but more by the financial reforms that will be undertaken and efforts by each state vis-à-vis their budget constraint.

Olivier Blanchard highlighted the various factors that play a headache for monetary policy. In the latest report "Global Financial Stability" IMF issues of internal and external rebalancing are highlighted. Policy Exchange First, reserve accumulation prevents the adjustment of exchange between them despite the entry of new capital - it is the case in many emerging countries. The current account surplus recorded in these countries maintain a climate of uncertainty in addition to policies Quantitative Easy. A second factor is based on trade policies that are themselves based on countries' fiscal policies.

Trade Policy and fiscal policy: two factors in the evolution of currency

fiscal policies are related to rebalancing domestic savings. The crisis has reduced private demand, the decline was offset by public demand to limit the decline in economic growth. Today it is imperative that the private demand recovers its leading role in the savings - something even more important that we ask the states to consolidate their budgets and stabilize or reduce their debt. In parallel, the weakness of private demand is accompanied by a dichotomous choice of trade policies between countries. China has built and continues to grow its external demand (internal and otherwise) while the United States know, however, a decline in private demand (high savings), which penalizes its economy. These parameters supply the debates on rate hikes Interest in the U.S. and Europe. Olivier Blanchard's argument is to argue that these economies did not need at the moment of rising interest rates, but macro-prudential measures and priorities relating to financial system reforms. For the French economist, investment and demand will leave if and only if the financial system is reformed.

In sum, the upcoming international meetings such as economic policies will have a key role. Coordination between central banks would be a great way to re-adjust the exchange between different currencies and so-cons carrer expectations of investors (by limiting non-conventional monetary policies, even if sterilized to the image of the ECB). Without coordination the machine would become even more complex. If the financial system takes advantage of current monetary policy is its structural changes (reforms) that will impact the real economy of tomorrow.

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The new site of Perspectives on the Economy is now available!

opportunity to read the note reading book Augustin Landier and David Thesmar written by one of the authors of Peripolis taking part in the adventure NCE.

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Mortensen and Pisarides Diamond: Nobel Prize Economy

Peter Diamond is recognized for its extensive work in macroeconomics, in default of being with Mirrlees, Nobel laureate in 1996 already.

Pisarides and Mortensen have developed models such pairings already mentioned on the blog in a post about the taxation dismissal.

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2010 Death of Maurice Allais

The day before the announcement of the Nobel Prize in Economics 2010, Maurice Allais - French Nobel Prize-winning single in the discipline - is died .

His work in decision theory (the famous Allais paradox) or in macroeconomics have particularly distinguished in particular those dealing with efficient markets that will yield the Nobel Prize in 1988. It will remain the forerunner of many theories become famous. He also provides a basis for the rule of growth popularized Phelps later and brought, among others, a basis for academic work related to intertemporal processes (generalized by Samuelson thereafter). His reformulation of the quantity theory of money demonstrates once again that Maurice Allais is a key figure in development economics in the 20th century and an architect of its mathematical formalization.

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For those who can not move the store there is always the possibility of placing an order.
For all orders above 60 €, shipping is available for Belgium and for France.In Nord below this amount is a fee of 5 € you will be charged.

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1. Gloves & Mittens

Friday, October 29th from 13:30 to 15h 30

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Nobel Prize in Economics 2010

In one week the 2010 Nobel Prize in Economics will be awarded. Thomson Reuters has proposed some names: Alberto Alesina for his studies on political-economic cycles, Nobuhiro Kiyotaki and John Moore for the model that bears their name and shows how small economic shocks can be amplified by significant fluctuations in returns due to credit constraints. Finally the name of Kevin Murphy for his studies on the social economy (unequal wages, medical research, etc..) Was submitted to the readers.

In macroeconomics we should not forget that neither Romer nor BARRO have yet received the medal. Similarly, work in finance from FAMA causes each year, forecasters to capitalize on its behalf. In addition, DIXIT, BHAGWATI, HOLMSTROM, Helpman and Grossman, Milgrom and Tirole NORDHAUS or are candidates to be entirely credible.

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Obama's Wars: Bob Woodward's new book essential

Bob Woodward from The Washington Post was already well-known for having made public the Watergate scandal with Carl Bernstein in 1972. He then published many books on US politics that have all become unavoidable for everyone studying the United States. With Obama’s wars , Woodward wrote an essential text about the decision-making process on foreign policy . This publication is a major event in America’s political season, just some weeks before the mid-term elections, and has already become a Classic in American political literature.

Obama’s wars deals with the American strategy towards Iraq and especially Afghanistan. How was this shaped? How were made the decisions? Who really decides? How can we explain what’s happening on the Afghan ground with what happened in the Oval Office? More broadly, what’s happening at the highest level of US politics? Woodward’s book gives passionate, informative, and disrupting answers.

The book is disrupting, because it first describes an Obama administration undermined by internal divisions. There is, according to Bob Woodward, an increasing conflict between short-term political interests and long-term military strategies that shapes the decision-making process in the Obama administration . We meet a lot of characters in this book; each of them has his own opinion about the war. Vice-President Biden, for instance, underlines the fact that “progress in Afghanistan depends on reducing corruption”; he considers the Afghan President, Hamid Karzaï, as unreliable since he learned by the CIA that he is manic depressive. He especially supports a less important military presence in the country and even a rollback, while General McChrystal, then General Petraeus, claim for a bigger military commitment. At the contrary, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, chief of the American diplomacy, endorses the military’s position.
When Vice-President Joe Biden insulted the special US representative in Afghanistan, Richard Holbrooke, as a “fuckhead”; when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton uses the expression “your decisions” instead of “our decisions” while she’s talking to the President; when Barack Obama spends many days hearing at each contradictory point of view, there is no need of others words to understand how bad the atmosphere is in Obama’s administration.

Especially, Woodward describes a hesitating President, under several and contradictory influences, sometimes unable to settle the conflicts. Barack Obama seems to be “ fixated on an exit strategy ”. The book underlines his uncertainty several times.

Thus, the weight of internal politics appears as the main factor in this decision-making process . Obama refused a long-term commitment in Afghanistan because he thought he had the confidence of Democrats and voters for only two years. It explains his refusal of a “ Nation-building strategy ” ("Nation-building" meaning the whole reconstruction of Afghanistan: the economy, the political institutions, the civil society, a running private sector), that would have cost 1 000 billion dollars. That is why he sent only 30 000 new soldiers in Afghanistan while the Pentagon claimed for 40 000. According to him, the war in Afghanistan must be as short as possible, just in order to keep the support of the Democratic Party. Broadly, Woodward’s book describes Obama as focused on short-term goals linked with internal politics while the situation on the ground requires a long-term strategy . It draws a gap ever larger between the President and military officials .

By depicting the atmosphere in Obama’s administration, the President’s difficulty to settle, and especially the growing gap between the “Commander in Chief” and the military, Obama’s wars by Bob Woodward explains All Of The hesitations, all of The Turnaround Strategy in the U.S. That Have Been blatant Since 2009. More broadly, it explains us the complexity of the decision-making process in US Foreign policy.

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Is there still a "special relationship" between Britain and the United States? American concerns

From a geopolitical point of view, it is generally the foreign policy of Great Britain as aligned with the interests and policy options the United States. In fact, the United States and England have developed since the twentieth century, a specific relationship, not only based on mutual interests or a "realpolitik", but also on shared beliefs, common values. The joint commitment of American and British power in the international arena was checked several times, including quite recently with the alliance between President Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair. But now, more and more conservative U.S. analysts are concerned about the deterioration of this "special relationship .

is less a convergence of interests that a genuine Anglo-American political theory that is causing the extremely close alliance between the U.S. and Great Britain. The longevity of this relationship so exclusive is based on the idea that in history, only the English and American revolutions had enabled the effective transition to democracy and political freedom, on the contrary example of the French Revolution and Chinese revolution, which had only perpetuate or revive dictatorships. In the field of political thought, Americans and British were developing theories of constitutional law that seemed well ahead of the institutional practices of their contemporaries. Thus was born the idea that the two English-speaking peoples, constituting a "Anglo-Saxon" had a specific responsibility: to promote an international order based companies, on liberalism, free trade, rule of law and democracy.
The course of the Second World War was provided to support the vision of the special relationship the United States and Great Britain being the last Western countries to resist the Nazi wave in 1940-1942. The war against Hitler marked an important step in building a close alliance between the two powers past custodians of democratic ideology and human rights.

Such a view naturally implies almost military cooperation, based on the almost unconditional support for Britain to U.S. military policies. That is why the British played a significant role in the establishment of NATO. In military contributions, financial and political Organization, Great Britain was the major player behind the U.S., like them members of the Security Council of the United Nations. The scientific and technical exchanges, particularly in the nuclear sphere, allowed the U.S. to lift Great Britain to the status of nuclear power in the post-war period. Nuclear weapons were designed, developed and controlled jointly in the framework of treaties such as the Atomic Energy Defense Agreement of 1958, a document which highlights the unprecedented level of integration in the nuclear field between two sovereign states. In the field of intelligence, the Anglo-American cooperation was also widely developed thanks to the Cold War, playing a unique complementarity between MI6 and the CIA, the two intelligence agencies more developed, the most effective - and The most controversial - Powers West.

Was well built with European public opinion the image of Britain as a "geopolitical American enclave," a European power inevitably oriented America and not to the mainland, intrinsically Atlanticist. This description is not far from reality, but reality is more complex.

The agreement on the major differences was not evacuated, and the story of " special relationship" has been characterized tension, whether in 1956 when the Americans are frontally opposed to the British during the Suez crisis, or even during the '80s, when the honeymoon between Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher with the Falklands War that the U.S. administration does not digested. Differences that do not question the logic whose longevity still seemed indisputable in the early 2000s.
But what worries some American analysts, these are some basic trends, developments inevitable. If it is largely "Atlanticist", near the United States in its political and economic culture, Great Britain did has been no less sensitive to the dynamics of European integration, so much so that it is increasingly torn between two centers of attraction.

UK crossed a milestone with its accession to the European Economic Community in 1973, a decision that marked the end of the Anglo-Saxon exclusivity on international free trade. In other words, the logic of integration is no longer exclusively Atlanticist, but continental. Since the British were all European and all institutional advancements, but in an ambivalent position which has reflected many times on the European budget issues, and the refusal to enter the eurozone.
The Bush-Blair period between 2001 and 2007 was emblematic of the ambivalent position between European integration and geopolitical alignment options on the U.S. administration. The joint commitment in Afghanistan and especially Iraq, a bilateral initiative that circumventing international law and the UN, but also from Tony Blair, the choice to stand out from the French, Germans and Russians, showed although the British political class still looking to America.
But many U.S. analysts, generally related to the Republican Party or supporters of the neoconservative think tanks of the Bush years, expressed concern about the reaction of British public opinion to Blair's experience in foreign policy. The sinking of the coalition in Iraq has greatly tarnished the image and balance of the decade, Tony Blair, however, begun under the endorsements aspects of modernity in 1997. His ouster of the head of the Labour Party and its exit from 10 Downing Street in 2007 is largely related to the disastrous Iraq adventure, his electoral base does not forgiving him his "servility" to George W. Bush. The failure Iraq would, according to these academics, undermined the very idea of close military cooperation between the two powers.

They believe that the successor to Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, sought to rectify the situation from 2007 to 2009, pushing away his country's cooperation with the European Union, stressing his concern for multilateralism, appointing ministers like Douglas Alexander and Mark Malloch Brown, known for their dislike of U.S. unilateralism, or by placing David Miliband Minister of Foreign Affairs, which refuted the very term "special relationship" between Britain and the United States.

Academics American conservatives also worry about the rise of liberal Democrats, very Europhile, during the 2010 elections. With more than 23% of the vote, the centrist party could form a coalition government with the conservative leader David Cameron and Nick Clegg became Deputy Prime Minister. The positioning of the Euro-skeptic David Cameron does more reassuring because nothing dramatic happened since coming to 10 Downing Street in May.

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The selective action puzzle

The selective intervention is a theoretical debate and cost-effective response to the problem: "Is that a vertical integration a firm is always a solution as good or greater than a vertical disintegration of a firm? . This debate, still current, is built around two propositions: that of Williamson and that of Grossman and Hart. The concept was proposed by Williamson and aims to compare a large firm and what it might be and whether it was divided into smaller entities for each activity.

In this first part we discuss Williamson's suggestions. The non-intuitive idea of the work, since cons-factual, is to suggest that a firm would have for example interest entities to be managed separately from the already vertically integrated. The distinction with the approach of Williamson and that of Grossman and Hart based on principal-agent relationship. The principal offers a contract incentive. In view of Williamson, only the acts after the establishment of the contract (the contract is put in place only for the agent). In the Grossman and Hart, the principal is also involved in the contract terms. The choice of the theoretical structure implies different consequences and recommendations.

As Jacques CREMER in his working paper "Solving the Puzzle Selective Intervention" (TSE, March 2010), no company can be completely integrated vertically as each productive activity requires both upstream and downstream production of other goods or services, often complementary to each other . In sum, a firm tends to a perfect integration but can not get it completely. Also, no firm can be fully integrated, there will always be an input purchased from another contractor. Therefore, the question is to what degree a firm's interest to integrate.

Issue fundamental debate is that it calls into question the obvious too soon established. For example, what model you seem the most efficient between these two proposals: *

- a firm produces oil in a desert, it uses a pipeline to transfer its production to a central refinery. Each activity is being managed by a separate entity.

- A firm produces oil at sea, she uses a boat to transport production to a point in refining. Each activity is being managed by a separate entity.

The second proposal seems the least expensive Because including the establishment of complete contract is possible. In practice, the firm may subcontract the transfer of production to any company that specializes in shipping. However the pipeline involves a long-term contract and especially the use of a specific asset for each entity. Regardless, the third entity (pipeline) required for the transfer of production involves incomplete contracts. In this case integration is a far superior solution to the model with three separate entities.

Williamson shows that integration decreases the incentive. The three owners of the three separate entities that feel more responsible managers of a firm already integrated. However, as the model oil-refinery-transport shows, integration remains the most cost effective solution if the asset is specific to each activity. Regardless, the assets will be more specific, more integration will be a superior solution to a separate organization. On the other hand always in a vertical pattern, the upstream entity of a second entity has a greater ability to control. Considering the firm as the upstream entity, it a alors tout intérêt à s’intégrer.

L’enjeu de l’intervention sélective est aussi à mettre en parallèle avec le problème du hold up. Les deux concepts limitent la frontière de la firme. La distinction entre ces deux notions repose sur les engagements des managers. Dans une entité séparée d’une autre, les managers restent exposés au jugement du marché, en particulier sur le respect des objectifs initialement fixés. Si ces engagements ne sont pas vérifiés, il existe un risque de hold-up (processus où une firme intègre progressivement un sous-traitant à son propre schéma organisationnel) donc un risque que the subcontractor is vertically integrated with the client firm. Property rights are important variables in deciding what is integration. For these reasons, selective intervention is considered expensive. The firm must measure the opportunity cost of decreasing the incentive mechanism of the contract owner-manager. Costs that are considered by Williamson as illusory as it becomes impossible to maintain incentives at a constant level.

Williamson's contribution is to show the benefits of integration and offer contracts established on the principle that entities are not integrated to preserve maximum incentives.

However, this proposal has generated considerable criticism.

First, there is no evidence that the optimal contract after integration is a simple variation of the optimal contract without integration. It's a good idea but not proven. The second recommendation (organizing the firm as if it was separate entities) Williamson's life is not as relevant as the first (the integration is always preferable).

Masten (1999) stresses the need for an effective guarantee to encourage managerial divisions to innovate, make very profitable investments and reduce costs, or to remain efficient. Such an initiative would go beyond the theories of Williamson resigned under any circumstances contemplated the possibility of a centralized organization that retains all its power incentive. Selective intervention can not be verified.

One way to disprove and prove the falsity of Williamson on the still more profitable vertical integration is to show that is possible to earn an income at least as high with an organization separate entity. This requires that the contract applies mechanisms such as incentives for the agent to the principal. This is where Grossman and Hart in 1986.

Grossman and Hart believe that incentive mechanisms can be introduced by means of property rights. That the allocation of those rights that determine the power of incentive contract. Game theory analyzes the implementation of the contract that must be seen as a game and not organized as a simple desire to control the behavior agent. To simplify the model by Grossman and Hart (1986) is with 2 officers and 1 active. Hart and Morre (1990) have proposed an extension of the paper with more agents and more active.

In traditional theories, adverse selection was very static. The principal offers a contract to the agent who accepts or not to honor it. This contract is necessarily incomplete (since not all information can be written) so the agent operates within a predetermined by the principal. In the work of Grossman and Hart, it is simply a framework of action for both agents so that property rights facilitate the implementation of incentives. In addition, after signing the contract remains the principal as involved as the agent.

Riordan (1990) criticizes this view by showing that Grossman and Hart define vertical integration through the control of the asset when it is the ability to control the production system which defines vertical integration for Riordan .

For example, if the contract implies that the downstream firm can use capital and labor power of the upstream firm then there is no integration vertical sense of Grossman and Hart, while Riordan sees integration as such because the two firms start simultaneously in agreement on the internal management of the productive process.

But if the contract requires that the upstream firm leases an asset to the firm specific downstream while Grossman and Hart considers vertical integration where Riordan would say the opposite in view of non-participation of the downstream firm internal control of the upstream firm.

Bibliography:

Williamson, Oliver E. 1985, "The Economic Institutions of Capitalism: Firms, Markets and Vertical Contracting "

Klein, Benjamin, Robert C.Crawford and Armen A.Alchian 1978: " Vertical Integration, Appropriable Rents, and the Competitive COntracting Process. " The journal of Law and Economics

Crémer, Jacques, 1995 " Arm's Lenght Relatioships " Quaterly Journal of Economics"

Crémer, Jacques, 2010, " Solving the "Selective Intervention " Puzzle", TSE Working Paper

Nicolai J.Foss, Peter G. Klein, Richard N.Langlois, Lasse B.Lien : http://organizationsandmarkets.com

Grossman, Sandford H. and Oliver D.Hart. 1986 " The costs and benefits of ownership: a theory of vertical and lateral integration. " Journal of Political Economy 94

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Hillary Clinton At The Council on Foreign Relations: redefining America's leadership for the 21st century?

During a meeting at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington on September 8th, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton gave a speech in which she reasserted some classic topics about the American commitment in the world, claiming for a “ lasting American leadership for the decades to come ”.

“ America can, must, and will lead in this new century ” she said in the most explicit way, emphasizing a renewed American interventionism in international relations. With such a speech, Clinton aimed at reasserting first the ability of her country, even in a period of economic turmoil, to take initiatives on a global scale. Then, Hillary Clinton emphasized what she called “ a new American moment ”: according to her, the American global leadership is more essential than ever in today’s world. In other words, it is time for the United States to seize the opportunity given by the current needs of a deeper American commitment: the world would be counting on the United States, as showed after the floods in Pakistan or currently during the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian authority.

Has Hillary Clinton become neoconservative on foreign policy issues? Not really. She remains far from George W. Bush’s views and practices between 2000 and 2008, by refusing unilateralism. In other words, Hillary Clinton has redefined the American leadership as the American ability to mobilize partners and allies with shared diplomatic initiatives ; thus “ American leadership ” in Clinton’s mouth doesn’t mean the right to go alone and dismiss the international law, but means that the US would work more closely with the United Nations and International Institutions. She also said “ we must often lead in new ways ”, referring to the expression of “ smart power ”, instead of “ hard or soft power ” she used and made famous for two years.
Instead of Neoconservatives, Clinton’s speech clearly reminds her predecessor Madeleine Albright’s views during Bill Clinton’s second term as President, when she was talking about the United States as the “ indispensable nation ”. According to Stewart M. Patrick , Senior Fellow in the CFR, Hillary Clinton has “ offered her own vision of US global leadership, adapted to an era of more constrained US power ”, a vision fully different from the Neoconservative one, founded on “ unchallenged US primacy and freedom of action ”.

However, the difference is blatant between this speech and the one she gave last year in the same think tank . In 2009, the Secretary of State insisted on multilateralism, partnerships. These topics are always part of the speech, but they have been moved to the background, leaving the place on the foreground for a single American leadership.
That is why, according to the analyst from the CFR, Clinton appeared so enthusiastic on NATO, describing “ the most successful alliance in the world ”, and eluding the obviously different views between America and many European countries on the Organization. That is why she avoided the tricky issue between the United States and its fellow partners: the enlargement of the United Nations Security Council . It is not certain that the America Clinton depicts would be ready to support Brazil, India, or other emerging power as permanent members in the Security Council.

The so-called “renewed American leadership” Hillary Clinton described appears more reluctant than ever to integrate new powers in international institutions. Especially, Clinton’s speech seems to dismiss any large reform of global governance . Is this model really adapted to the 21st century?

According to the columnists from the New York Times, this speech was meant to address voters for the next mid-term elections in November which will probably turn at the advantage of the Republican Party. Indeed, the Obama administration is currently looking for the diplomatic success it needs . When you look at Obama’s foreign policy priorities such as Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, North Korea and the Middle East, the assessment may be harsh. Tehran has also nuclear ambitions for building a regional leadership clearly threatening Israel’s security. Despite the announcements, the American military will remain involved for a large part in Iraq. North Korea poisoned the US-China relationship this summer. Afghanistan remains “ the Graveyard of the empires ”. And everyone can notice the lack of progress on the Arab-Israeli conflict. In these conditions, Obama is more and more compared to Jimmy Carter and his several failures on foreign policy issues - so the Obama administration had to send a strong message to the American People on this topic. Not sure The Dear allies and partners of the U.S. would appreciate it.

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The U.S. economy and its uncertainties

Many economists have been questioning for several months on the cyclicality of the U.S. economy. If the recovery seemed sustainable, many fear a return to recession. This uncertainty is particularly important as it signifies the European economies and their institutions and all international markets. If the U.S. economy is doing badly, then global markets will be destabilized. But what are these uncertainties?

Much of the problem is quite simple to grasp. Overall demand is very low, the effective supply can not increase (output gap) and economic growth remains too low. Meanwhile over fiscal policies seem necessary. Yet without the benefit of taxpayers, high public spending is difficult to justify when an application for bond markets and bond yields very low. The problem is that a spiral can be installed by the variable rate of unemployment higher and higher. Between economic growth, unemployment and public spending, the analysis can quickly become complex. Now all the current debate on the economy American relies on these three pillars.

A GLOBAL DEMAND LOW

One solution to this problem is to decide on a debate that is supposed to structural unemployment. Bradford DeLong spoke about it and quickly showed the falsity of the debate. Structural unemployment is a shift in labor demand across sectors leading to a cost adjustment for employees (new powers to obtain the flexibility of labor supply) as measured by higher unemployment rates. For example, a decline in demand for real estate would imply a lower demand new construction. On the other hand, the decline in real estate could be accompanied by an increase in demand for goods or services. There would be a structural change in labor supply where the bricklayers required should obtain new skills for example produce certain goods or services requested by households. This is a situation of structural unemployment. Today, however, to simplify, not a change in the demand for goods or services that we see but an overall decline in demand that affects too many important areas.

savings rates as favorable and unfavorable

Therefore, and if one accepts the idea that the U.S. aggregate demand is too low, one may wonder about its causes. Martin Feldstein examines the net saving rate of households. This ratio is generally very low in the United States of about 2% since the 90s. The tendency to slightly spared was notably driven by strong valuation of securities held by individuals and access to easy credit. These two factors encouraging Americans to save less and thus consume more. Mid-2010, the U.S. savings rate was estimated at 6.3%, well above to 2% above normal and close to the level of year 80 (9%).

This increase is rather mechanical. The high unemployment encourages individuals to save in anticipation of partial unemployment. We can cite for example the case of Modigliani's life cycle where the agent adjusts its consumption and savings so that their standard of living is maintained over several years. On the other hand the difficulties of the real estate sector made it difficult to obtain new credits. Added to this is the insolvency of the third owners of Americans with home loans following the severe decline in their assets (assets estate).

RISK OF DEPENDENCE

WITH EXTERNAL ECONOMIES THAT INCREASE

From a microeconomic point of view these behaviors create a decline in household demand. According to a macroeconomic perspective the problem is twofold. The decline in aggregate demand does not finance new investments, therefore limiting the restructuring of the economy. To remedy this decline in aggregate demand, public expenditure requires an increase in the budget including a greater tax burden on households and scope. In itself, the mechanism could balanced by a tax system that would compensate for individual behavior.

Gold is measured by the involvement of the U.S. economy vis-à-vis the rest of the world. The U.S. household savings (which fell from 10 000 billion since 2007) is insufficient to finance government spending. The use of foreign capital will quickly become a necessity. However, any dependency on the outside involves greater risk and especially autonomy of the weaker U.S. economy.

POLICY economically risky

AND DEVELOPER UNCERTAINTIES CURRENT

Barack Obama once advocated a growth based on exports. As proposed by Daniel Gros, the analogy with Germany of the 90s is not so bad. In this case, the first European economic power has developed an export strategy that has paid dividends since 2000. The problem is that unlike Germany, the United States can not derive any benefit from new opportunities. Southern Europe had resulted in support of the single currency, develop new markets including real estate in Germany. Opportunities that have strongly contributed to the development of exports. The United States will not have such opportunities and will suffer even more than the dollar to the yuan is linked with the country, China is experiencing strong economic growth. In addition to these adverse conditions the vision long term approach that requires the export strategy of the United States: the transition is usually long and requires ten years.

TO AVOID A NEW CRISIS

In this context, how to support domestic demand by limiting the length with the outer while controlling public spending is a real headache. The United States will cope, especially if no solution is found then a second recession is inevitable. These uncertainties in financial markets. Importantly, these uncertainties can lead to self behavior directors - something very desirable for our economies, including European ones where everything remains to be done.

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uncertain first steps of European diplomacy

calls a "single European voice" in international negotiations are old, but the concrete developments of the idea are very recent. Summer 2010 saw the creation of effective service to the European External Action Service (EAS) headed by the unexpected British Ashton. The function of the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs is to represent the EU internationally. The challenge was whether she will represent in lieu of or in addition to Member States. The answer is very clearly the second option - which is very informative on the diplomatic strategy of the EU, but also that of countries like France.

Objectives EEAS are twofold: " strengthen the voice of the EU worldwide " and " improve its impact on the ground . The first 6 months of exercise Ashton have not been conclusive so far. Inaudible on the crisis in Gaza, invisible to Haiti, although the EU will achieve concrete results in humanitarian terms (school construction, reconstruction assistance, relief), the initiative was clearly left to the Americans. Too bad, because the EU was definitely a not insignificant role to play, such as intermediary between Turkey and Israel at the time of rising tensions following the IDF assault on the fleet.

In his defense, the High Representative did not yet have structures, organization and networks tailored to the requirements of its missions. SEAE yet endorsed the ratification of the Treaty of Lisbon in 2007, had not yet been established. The 29 ambassadors of the European Union, which will replace the delegations of the European Commission, will be appointed in mid-September. In the medium term will require about 3 years for all staff required to operate the EAS are minimal up by Poul Chrisoffersen, special adviser to Ms Ashton.

Parliamentary procedure, which is supposed to come into force on approval by EEAS Parliament has been difficult and painstaking. Many politicians, both right and left and all nationalities, did not appreciate the pressure exerted by Ashton and European capitals on the vote, which they perceived as a reduction of the sovereignty of EP report to the European Council (composed by Heads of State and Government). Or how remarked that European institutions have become the scene of a power struggle between two kinds of sovereignty (the National Council for supranational Parliament). It becomes clear that the Treaty of Lisbon in 2007, he has made Europe a functional, has not settled the issue crucial to the future of political Europe. When
Ashton wrote in French newspaper Le Monde 30 July 2010, " Our goal is to make foreign policy in a modern way, differently and better. Not compete or duplicate what our Member States, but to seek to add value and play the power that is ours when we acting on behalf of the Union , "she said nothing concrete, or very little, unless you read between the lines: it will not exceed the member states which remain sovereign foreign policy.

The EAS is not an organ of diplomatic initiative. is a tool to build consensus among different foreign policies of states and integrate more closely diplomacy. There is concern in these conditions that the effort will be provided to harmonize diplomatic choices of different European countries will be so much energy that will not be oriented to decision making and rapid initiatives on an international stage that requires yet more responsive than ever.
These are very clearly the national diplomatic networks that remain unavoidable. Older, more developed, more experienced. They remain the main tool of influence, not power, nation states of Europe in the world. The French diplomatic network, the world's second largest, is certainly older, sometimes dusty, but nevertheless essential as it is developed and implemented on all continents and will be a relay of all natural European foreign policy. But it is hard to imagine France, then delegate sovereignty to a supranational level is one of the latest tools of influence in the world, giving it a leading position in power relations within the EU.

However, the EAS has much to do! Two examples: the "strategic partnerships" and Iran . Two critical issues in international relations of the next decade and for which national states in Europe, alone or scattered, may not be effective.

"A strategic partnership is to improve the political, diplomatic, economic, commercial and cultural relations with another key player in international relations, selected and targeted. In other words, with powers like the U.S., where China. The prototype of these strategic partnerships for Pakistan, with which the EU is currently reviewing all its relations following the humanitarian aid it provided to victims of recent floods. But look at the interests of EU Strategic Partnership / Chine.Pour develop strong relations with the Chinese giant, it will act as a European giant, that is to say as a whole economic, as a Union economic and monetary policy - and not in a myriad of states. It will also
a uniform policy on Iran . The EAS is there any sense. The diplomatic opportunity for the EU is enormous: the U.S. can not operate in Iran with whom diplomatic ties were severed formal and traditional. Especially, it is with the EU and the weapon of economic sanctions against Tehran may be most effective.
The sanctions imposed by Europe against Iran in July last go much further than those promulgated by the U.S. or the UN. They also have the ability - unlike the U.S. sanctions - to hit Iran's economy at a vulnerable point, which represents half of state revenues Iranian energy sector. By prohibiting investment, technical assistance and technology transfer to Iran, Europe is the regime of Ahmadinejad in a difficult position since, in somewhat modernized its refinery operations, it imports 43% of gasoline it consumes.

You can not assess, for the moment, the potential impact of these sanctions. But it is clear that Europe can play a significant role in this matter, on which the United States are struggling. Provided she has the means to "speak with one voice."

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Tax German Banking: An opportunity for Europe monetary

The German government adopted August 25, 2010 a proposed tax on bank profits. However criticized, this initiative illustrates the contribution of theoretical economics institutions concerned to stabilize.

The establishment of the ECB as an independent authority had rewarded the efforts of Kydland and Prescott (1977). They had demonstrated the time-inconsistency of monetary policy (a policy of low inflation may be quickly followed by an inflationary policy). A first step supported by Germany for the project in the euro area.

The success of European monetary policy to face financial crisis of 2007 raised the gaps budgetary policies of different member states. Structural problems, advances that have erupted in recent months with countries like Greece or Portugal. These difficulties are closely related to the support of governments to the attention of the great leaders of banking. In sum, monetary policy has eased the macroeconomic crisis while governments have avoided the crisis by micro rescue of several banks.

The German initiative proves to be a way of preventing bank runs . Three solutions are proposed by the economic literature. The first is the force that narrow banking financial intermediaries have sufficient funds to repay depositors in case of crisis. The second approach was proposed by Diamond and Dybvig in 1983 and is to establish a public system of deposit insurance financed by a levy on all deposits. A third and final proposal is that the lender of last resort source of moral hazard. Hazards which have multiplied in 2008 and 2009 when states have recapitalized many banks. In sum, if the third proposal has already been "adopted", the second is valid.

Germany does not impose a fee for each applicant, however the "bank tax" applies to financial intermediaries within a limit of 15% of their net income. Certainly There remains a incentive to risk taking, since some banks will be saved in case of future crises, but the allocation of this fund a few banks in difficulties may exclude others, resulting in a risk-taking limited . In addition, the establishment of this fund encourages companies to increase their capital base and diversify their activities.

Two challenges remain ahead. The first is extend this policy throughout the European Union . This idea is not only desirable for each country taken separately (France supports the initiative), it opens for European governance as monetary and fiscal facilitating homogenisation of the competitiveness of financial players in the eurozone. The establishment of a new independent authority in charge of a European fund would enhance the credibility of the European Central Bank.

A second challenge is to develop an evaluation grid banking institutions could take advantage of these bank charges. Determine debt ratios as capitalization would be a first step to encourage institutions to strengthen their balance sheets. The tax credit would serve more only to limit the use of public funds supplied by taxpayers. Better tax would encourage financial institutions to adopt sustainable growth strategies and thus indirectly reduce the risk of further systemic crises, in agreement with new prudential .